Posts Tagged ‘Investments’


Hi everyone!

It’s been a while! Clearly the economic gloom has played its toll on AIM in general over the last year, particularly the tail end of 2011, this basically meant that in the most part I’d reduced or cleared any holdings and watched from the sidelines. Clearly given that I wasn’t active any more, I felt little reason to post!

Now I’m not going to pretend that the economic turmoil is behind us and that things will only get better from here. I’m certainly remaining cautious of the global circumstances.

However, as of the very end of last year, I started to get back in the game, and so I intend to start posting here again.

I’m currently going through an Administrative task on the blog itself, nothing anyone will notice, but it means that while I planned to have something useful up today, I won’t be able to. Hopefully within a week or two.

In the mean time, I will, however mention a few things I believe are worth keeping an eye on:

RMP / RRL (Red Emperor and Range Resources)
  • Their current drills in Puntland. Spudded around 17th January (RNS). Claim it will take 90 days to complete the well, and then move on to second. This could be game changing for both companies. It will de-risk a massive area, where oil has previously been discovered (20 years ago). See my last updates on RMP and RRL which goes into Puntland a bit more. The SPs for both companies were significantly higher than today’s prices when I last wrote about them, which in my eyes says only one thing about the current price. First drill targeting 300MMb recoverable oil (60 net to RMP and RRL)… Even in these risk averse markets, say a valuation of $2 a barrel would add $120m to market cap of each company. Which for RMP with 190million shares in issue, is 40p a share (current SP 19p). Bear in mind $2 a barrel is pretty low given current oil price.
  • It’s worth re-iterating that oil was discovered on this licence 20 years ago but political instability drove conoco out of the area.
  • It’s also worth noting that Somalia and these oil drills are attracting a lot of media coverage, which brings investors with it. This was reflected in the pre-spud increase to 23p for RMP on high volume.  If the markets remain bullish, I expect some serious anticipation as we reach TD on this drill.
  • Furthermore, it’s certainly worth mentioning that if this drill finds oil in any of the 3 target zones, it de-risks some of the other prospects in the area. We are talking Billions of barrels of Oil.
  •  Looking to spud Georgia in the very near future (according to a recent RNS), this is targeting approx 100MMb Oil In Place, 20% to RMP and 40% to RRL. With a recoverability factor, these will add value, but less so than Puntland.

Just for fun, here’s a poll:

BOR (Borders and Southern)
  • Borders and Southern Petroleum. Started drilling their Darwin prospect early last week (RNS)
  • targeting 760MMB recoverable oil!
  • Current market cap circa £300m
  • Cash in bank circa £100m (enough to complete this drill and next Steebbing prospect, targeting 1280MMB recoverable resources!)
  • Note: Rockhopper, with their Sea Lion discovery (and some other un-appraised oil shows) of around 500MMb has a Market Cap of £1billion.
  • Lots of media attention surrounding the Falklands at the moment (good and bad), clearly the Argentinians are keen to own them, but I don’t think the UK has any intention of giving in, and we shouldn’t either, in my opinion.
SLE (San Leon Energy)

As previously highlighted (here) there’s loads going on for this company, and I simply cannot believe how cheap it is. The goings-on with the REALM acquisition have played a big part in depressing the SP in my opinion (RNS)

Recent news:

  • Some technical hurdles crossed on their Tarfaya Oil Shale project – RNS (although clearly more hurdles to get through).
  • Additional leads highlighted in Morocco as a result of the latest 2D seismic survey (RNS).
  • A Prospective recoverable resource upgrade for Albania amounting to a total of over 1 billion barrels of potential recoverable oil
  • A transfer of risk of the Barryroe license, in exchange for a 4.5% net profit interest of the whole field (RNS)

News to come soon:

  • Barryroe update
  • Siciny-2 well in Poland, spudded 11th November
  • Rogity-1 well in Poland, spudded 13th December
  • Further Morocco updates

And this doesn’t cover the half of it… On top of all the above, the SP is sat at around 11p, which is simply ludicrous. Rumours on the various BBs are that the big REALM sellers are now done, so hopefully the path should be clear for a rise over coming weeks. But we’ll see.

The Small Print

Please note that I am not a financial adviser or even employed in the financial sector and am not providing financial advice. The contents of this blog are from my own research of publicly available data, and any opinions expressed are my own. I trust that you enjoy reading them but you must do your own research or obtain financial advice before making any investment. Naturally, I do everything I can to ensure that the information posted by me is entirely accurate, however, any information provided is subject to the possibility of error, both in fact and interpretation, on my part and for that I can not be held accountable.


Note to all:

The below figures are NAV valuations and NAV projections, not Share Price projections. NAV is not always reflected in the SP, for an endless list of reasons, and clearly any upside from any future assets carries associated risk.  Please also read ‘The Small Print’ at the bottom of each post.

Summary:
  • Shared interest with Range Resources’ (RRL) Georgian and Puntland prospects
  • Currently on ASX only. Due to float on AIM on 23rd June (RNS)
  • Fully funded for proportioned cost of  first 3 exploration wells  – 2 in Georgia, 1 in Puntland (RNS)
  • As with RRL, Georgian Drilling confirmed early June (RNS)
  • As with RRL, LOI signed for drilling Puntland (RNS)
The Post:

Red Emperor Resources NL was pointed out to me by a fellow Range Resources investor. Quite simply, they are partnered with RRL on the Georgia and Puntland exploration prospects, which are due to be carried out in the coming months.

Red Emperor is currently only floated on ASX (Australian Stock Exchange), however they have announced plans to float on London AIM (RNS) later this month.

One of the key, and very noteworthy differences between RRL and RMP is the number of shares in issue. RMP currently has approx 160 million shares, which is an order of 10 x less than RRL. Clearly RRL has a lot else going on, and is currently producing out of Texas, so it’s a different beast, and I will leave the comparisons there for now.

So without further delay, I’ll move on to talk about the high impact prospects and what they might mean for RMP…

Georgia

RMP has a 20% interest in 2 blocks in Georgia (Vla & Vlb).  RPS Energy has identified 68 potential accumulations totalling over 2 billion barrels of OIP (with a conservative 30% recovery factor). 6 ready-to-drill prospects have been identified.

Range have now confirmed that the first drill is due to spud in June 2011 (RNS).

The first drill will target the Vani 3 prospect, which is stated to have a mean expected STOIIP of 115MMb, or P50 of 92.7MMb.

The geological Chance of Success at these Georgian prospects, I’ve found to be quoted as around 10%. Based on the current Share Price, it appears the market is not pricing in much success for any of these high impact prospects as yet (see charts below)

The charts that I’ve done below illustrate RMP’s share of these resources (20%).

Puntland

An exploration well hasn’t been drilled here in 18 years. However various wells that have been drilled had significant oil shows. RMP has the same share in these licenses as RRL, and has a 20% interest in the Dharoor and Nogal prospects.

RMP’s latest company update (RNS) stated that the combined estimated STOIIP is around 19.9 Billion barrels. The table beneath this statement appears to have a mistake, in that they’ve put 5.8 and 14.1MMBbl for Dharoor and Nugaal respectively, as opposed to 5,800MMBbl (5.8 Billion) and 14,100MMBbl (14.1 Billion) are the reality (confirmed by Old Park Lane Capital’s independent valuation – here)

The first drill in Nogal must spud before the end of July 2011, and a LOI has been signed (RNS) for a drill to take place in Q3 2011.

Jillewarra 

RMP has a 25% interest in a Copper and Gold project in western Australia, but there’s little else available in the way of information, so I will ignore this for now.

Impact

I don’t think you need me to point out just how big these prospects are (or could be). To a company whose Market Capital is presently around A$55m, a discovery at any of these prospects would be transformational, in my opinion.

E.G. Vani 3 alone is 29MMbbl net to RMP (mean STOIIP), recovery @ 30% = 8.7MMBbl recoverable.  An in ground valuation of A$12 per barrel gives A$104m, which is almost double the current Market Cap.

And that’s just one example, being the nearest to spudding.

NAV charts:

With the share price currently sat around A$0.35 per share, I believe what we’re currently seeing as the market pricing in just under geological Chance of Success on the upcoming Georgian drills (the first 6).  I think with Puntland being potentially so huge, as soon as I price in even 1% CoS, the figures go through the roof, but I’ll come to that.

The chart below shows how NAV works out with a 10% CoS factored in, and with nothing factored in for Puntland.

Note that with respect to Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate, I’ve essentially assumed 1:1 (current actual exchange rate 1:0.95).

All resource figures are STOIIP (Stock-Tank Oil Initially In Place), with recoverability factors applied, and are values that are net to RMP.

RMP NAV – 10% CoS Georgia (first 6) & Puntland 0%

So as you can see, the NAV works out to be around A$0.42 per share without anything priced in for Puntland.

What If – No 1 Chart

So before we move on to Puntland, let’s see what we’d be looking at if Vani 3 (drilling in June) were to be successful and the market were to price the P50 value of 92.7MMBbl in.

RMP NAV – 10% CoS Georgia plus Vani 3 P50 success – Puntland 0%

If Vani 3 comes good, then we’re looking at a NAV of around A$0.78 per share, again, without Puntland or any other Georgian success.

Puntland NAV Charts

OK, so if we re-set Georgia to being 10% CoS, and concentrate on Puntland. I’m not going to go crazy and price in 100% success for either of the Puntland Regions… Well I might, for fun in a minute. But in the mean time, if I put 2% success of Puntland into the NAV, this is what you get (note that the 2% represents 2% of current resource estimates discovered, rather than 2% CoS):

RMP NAV – 10% CoS Georgia (first 6) – Puntland 2%

That’s right, even with just 2% of the resource potential of Puntland, we’re looking at a NAV approaching A$2 per share.

What if – Stupid Chart

Right, OK, one stupid chart, just for fun…  Please bear in mind that this is basically nonsense.. Clearly to prove up these sorts of reserves, RMP will need further fund raising etc. But for a laugh, here’s a chart of 50% success across all of Puntland and Georgian assets:

RMP NAV – 50% success at Georgia and Puntland

That’s right people, over A$40 per share. Hmm – that’d be the day!

Important

While the above pictures all look quite rosy and exciting, I feel compelled to highlight that CoS for any oil drilling is always low. If these drills weren’t to find Hydrocarbons, then there’s always downside on offer, particularly with the lovely effect of market sentiment. It’s something worth remembering, at all times.

Summary:

Red Emperor has some very high impact exploration coming up and is fully funded to carry out the first 3 drills. The upside is really quite attractive, but as mentioned above, there is always a potential downside. These are high risk, high impact prospects, in my opinion.

They do have very few shares in issue and hence a very low Market Capital. It will be interesting to see what happens when they float on AIM later this month. Low number of shares in issue often means volatility, which can be very exciting, or very scary (depending on direction of share movement).

Clearly the prospects have the same attractive qualities that any Range investor must be interested in. But to be invested in both is to be twice exposed to the same risk.

RRL has other things going on, RMP doesn’t have much else at the moment.

Bottom line, it looks exciting, but carries more risk than RRL due to the narrower portfolio, I think this is probably reflected in its current Market Cap. July -Sept will be a VERY interesting few months for this company.

Thanks for reading!

The Small Print

Please note that I am not a financial adviser or even employed in the financial sector and am not providing financial advice. The contents of this blog are from my own research of publicly available data, and any opinions expressed are my own. I trust that you enjoy reading them but you must do your own research or obtain financial advice before making any investment. Naturally, I do everything I can to ensure that the information posted by me is entirely accurate, however, any information provided is subject to the possibility of error, both in fact and interpretation, on my part and for that I can not be held accountable.


The first thing I’ll say is I’m back from Holiday, and it’s time to get down to business. It’s been a long time since I posted anything. I think my enthusiasm has waned somewhat thanks to the general investment and market sector negativity at the moment. The bright side is that the depression seen across the sector could offer some opportunities, potentially?!

So anyway, the first thing I’ve put together is a quick update for RRL, a fair bit of action has occurred since my first post on RRL. So let’s see…

Note to all:

The below figures are NAV valuations and NAV projections, not Share Price projections. NAV is not always reflected in the SP, for an endless list of reasons, and clearly any upside from any future assets carries associated risk.  Please also read ‘The Small Print’ at the bottom of each post.

Summary:
  • Texas flow rate updates – Fraccing success (RNS)
  • Trinidad acquisition (and share placing) (RNS)
  • June date confirmed for Georgia (RNS)
  • LOI signed for Puntland (RNS)
The Post:

Range have been hard at work on a variety of things as you can see in the above summary. These have had some impact on the charts I’d put together, so let’s get down to it…

Texas

There have been a number of news articles released on Texas progress over the last couple of months, the most significant being the most recent (in my opinion), which stated that the upper zone of Russell Bevley #1 well was producing stably at 350 bopd and 3.5MMcf gas a day, which is a significant improvement on the rates previously reported (RNS). This zone alone almost reaches the target for the entire well, so the combination of all zones should far exceed target, which is great for revenue.

Work is now being carried out on the Smith well, and fraccing is meant to be taking place on the Horizontal Ross 3H well in East Texas.  News should be arriving in due course, based on these updates from RRL.

Trinidad

RRL had previously stated that the wells on these blocks are currently producing around 700bopd, but RRL hope to increase this to 4000bopd with a minimal work program over the next 36 months. Since then, they made a surprise (to me) move, and decided they would increase their 10% stake to 100% (RNS). Clearly Range needed funding for this acquisition and carried out a placing to secure funding, which was over-subscribed by 25%.

There are some gems in this acquisition. The obvious ones are:

  • Increased Revenue from these assets (10 fold)
  • Increased NAV
  • Ownership of a company which owns useful drilling equipment
  • Additional prospectivity beyond current P10, P50 and P90 estimations of 20MMb
  • Additional prospectivity in the Herrera formations on the licenses, estimates up to 100MMb

So Ragne hope to improve their production from these wells, and drill further exploration wells to try and prove up some of this promising prospective resource, using the equipment they have acquired. So drilling costs should be quite reduced.

Even at current production rates, 100% ownership gives Range some serious revenue. 600 bopd will bring in circa £15m a year in revenue. Profit is anyone’s guess, but my charts assume $25 per barrel for production, so £3.5m per year profit.

Georgia

As stated before, Georgia, I believe is where a lot of the excitement sits. RRL has a 40% interest in 2 block in Georgia (Vla & Vlb). RPS Energy has identified 68 potential accumulations totalling over 2 billion barrels of OIP (with a conservative 30% recovery factor). 6 ready-to-drill prospects have been identified.

Range have now confirmed that the first drill is due to spud in June 2011 (RNS).

This will target the Vani 3 prospect. My previous charts were assuming 145MMb STOIIP for Vani 3 (as per their quarterly report). However the latest RNS states Mean STOIIP of 115.2MMb, so I’ve updated charts accordingly. I haven’t split this out to P10, P50 and P90, simply out of laziness, sorry! But in the What-if scenario, I will use the P50 value of 92.7MMB STOIIP.

Puntland

As previously reported, there’s a lot of political history associated with this area. An exploration well hasn’t been drilled in 18 years. However various wells that have been drilled had significant oil shows. RRL now has a 20% interest in the Dharoor and Nogal prospects. The only data I could find w.r.t reserves is Conoco’s best estimate of more than 500mmb recoverable reserves in the Nogal Basin block.  I could find no equivalent for Dharoor.

The first drill in Nogal must spud before the end of July 2011, and a LOI has been signed (RNS) for a drill to take place in Q3 2011.

Updated 10% Risked NAV charts:

OK, I’ve applied the same rules as before. There are now more shares in issue, so NAV per share values have all cahnged, and there are various updates as described above. The first chart is simply for the NAV with Georgia and Puntland risked at 10% on top of Trinidad and Texas assets.  For Texas and Trinidad, I use a CoS factor of 10% for P3, 50% for P2 and 90% for P1 reserves. But as they are reserves, there is 100% recoverability applied to the numbers.

Georgia’s figures are STOIIP figures so a 30% recoverability factor is applied.

As before, I have risked Georgia and Puntland at 10% in this chart. It’s a stab in the dark figure, to see what NAV that returns. The answer is circa 21p. See the chart below:

RRL – NAV Update 9-6-11 – 10% Risked

Using a 10% risk factor for a lot of these assets is possibly quite optimistic, largely because many of them are a long way off and it’s unlikely the market is pricing these in yet, however instead of guessing the market, this is simply an approach. It enables me to be consistent.

What If – No 1 Chart

The fionly What-if chart I’ve done this time is for Vani 3, as that will be drilled in the near future. So this chart is simply What If Vani 3 comes good, and the market prices in the P50 resource value of 92.7MMb?

The answer is circa 25p NAV per share. See the chart below:

RRL – NAV Update 9-6-11 – Vani 3 Success

Now 25 p a share may not seem a lot, but there are more shares about these days, and this is for just one of many Georgian prospects.

Note:

Clearly any failures on any of these drills will result in a drop in SP, and this is always worth remembering. The What-If projection is based on success at Vani 3, Georgia. Clearly there’s plenty else going on for Range, and now they have a significant revenue stream.

In my eyes, Range is growing, and it seems very determined about it.

If you’d like to see more exciting What-If’s, then have a look at my last RRL post, there’s some fun on there. But clearly the remaining prospects aren’t updated as per this post.

I hope you all find this update suitable and well-rounded, and hopefully realistic! 🙂

Thanks for reading!

The Small Print

Please note that I am not a financial adviser or even employed in the financial sector and am not providing financial advice. The contents of this blog are from my own research of publicly available data, and any opinions expressed are my own. I trust that you enjoy reading them but you must do your own research or obtain financial advice before making any investment. Naturally, I do everything I can to ensure that the information posted by me is entirely accurate, however, any information provided is subject to the possibility of error, both in fact and interpretation, on my part and for that I can not be held accountable.


Note to all:

The below figures are NAV valuations and NAV projections, not Share Price projections. NAV is not always reflected in the SP, for an endless list of reasons, and clearly any upside from any future assets carries associated risk.  Please also read ‘The Small Print’ at the bottom of each post.

Overview

As promised, I’ve had a quick look at Enegi Oil following various requests from readers and it gathering a few votes in the poll a while back. One of the first things I should say is that I’m not actually invested here… This is a NAV assessment I’ve done in order to decide whether or not to invest. My opinion is that it looks to be a pretty decent company with a good strategy and some reasonable upside..  Unless I’ve missed something, I’d say Enegi is probably quite low on cash right now, but they’ve got some hefty farm-in agreements which offload a significant portion (if not all) of the cost of exploration elsewhere for a stake in their licenses / wells.

In summary, Enegi has a low market cap with a small number of operations, but they’ve taken a rather risk-averse approach to exploration of late, which is good news for shareholders, as this reduces their exposure to oil drill risk, as Enegi aren’t paying the majority of the associated costs. Clever.

Operations

Enegi are essentially operating out of Newfoundland, Canada, but they’ve also just been awarded a 495km2 license in Ireland (ON11-1), which they appear to be interested for its Clare Shale (potentially rich in gas).  This license could hold some interesting developments for Enegi in the long term.

The Newfoundland operations constitute a number of licenses (PL2002-1, EL1070 and EL1116) and various complex agreements.

PL2002-1 contains the Garden Hill prospects (South, Central and North). Garden Hill South is currently being operated, and has a single well (PAP#1) currently producing circa 200bopd, which is being worked over to improve production. Enegi has farmed out 40% of its interest in GHS, which will include the partner drilling a further well on the license.

Garden Hill Central & north remain 100% owned & operated by Enegi but plans for seismic work etc are currently under review.

Enegi has farmed out 70% of its interest in EL1070 in return for its partners assuming 100% of the costs of seismic survey and the drilling of an exploration well. Work on this prospect was commenced in January, there have been no updates through Enegi as yet.

There’s very little info available for EL1116, but this is adjacent to PL2002-1, and the company are currently considering the best approach, having parted with 25% of the required commitment for exploring the license.

NAV Assessments

Right, so I’ve put together a couple of charts indicating risked NAV.  This first chart shows what NAV is for risked success at current prospective / contingent recoverable resource estimations. It uses $12 per barrel and $1.50 per Mcf gas for value of oil in the ground. The POSc is 50% taken from Enegi’s CPR, which is the chance of the contingent resources being commercially extractable. I’ve applied probabilities for each resource category (P10, P50 and P90), the values in each box are for those categories alone (i.e. P10 does not equal P90+P50+P10, it equals the P10 portion only)

ENEG – NAV Assessment – Risked Resources – All

As you can see, this actually gives a NAV of 51p per share. So I figured clearly the market isn’t pricing something in right now…

If we consider the situation for Garden Hill Central & North, which is that there’s no public plan as yet, and I take these out of the equation, we get the below chart:

ENEG – NAV Assessment – Risked Resources – Excluding Garden Hill Central & North

As you can see, this is a little more like today’s SP, giving 16p per share NAV.

So if we consider the activities that are currently underway, then Garden Hill South and El1070 take the spot light. If Garden Hill South proves to be commercially extractable (thereby removing the 50% POSc factor, we get the following chart:

ENEG – NAV Assessment – Risked Resources – Excluding Garden Hill Central & North – GHS Successful

29p NAV per share for an average of the P10, P50, P90 resources. For what it’s worth If P10 (which, on my charts = P10+P50+P90) were to prove to be extractable, this would be worth 81p NAV per share. Naturally more wells will be required to prove up this sort of resource, and this takes time and investment.

Just for fun, if EL1070 were to prove to be contain the currently projected prospective resources, we get the following chart (this is with Garden Hill South reset to 50% POSc):

ENEG – NAV Assessment – Risked Resources – Excluding Garden Hill Central & North – EL1070 Successful

Conversely, I think it’s important to recognise risk. I’ve not previously put NAV assessments up for what-if-not’s, but a few have mentioned that, and it’s a fair point. So, if something were to go wrong and GHS were to prove not to be commercially viable (as is of course possible), then without until there is success on any of the other prospects, the resulting NAV can be seen in the below chart.

ENEG – NAV Assessment – Risked Resources – Excluding Garden Hill Central & North – GHS Failure

Clearly this is a dismal and reasonably unlikely picture.. And Enegi has the remaining prospects up its sleeve to balance out the risk.

Summary

Some decent upside with enough balance in its portfolio. Low on cash, but good farm-in agreements. Very low Market Capital right now with some high impact prospects.  News on EL1070 should be due soon, and further news on workover progress on Garden Hill South. The other Garden Hill prospects offer further upside on the above NAVs, but funds / farm-ins will be required.

I’ll be considering it for my portfolio when I have available funds.

The Small Print

Please note that I am not a financial adviser or even employed in the financial sector and am not providing financial advice. The contents of this blog are from my own research of publicly available data, and any opinions expressed are my own. I trust that you enjoy reading them but you must do your own research or obtain financial advice before making any investment. Naturally, I do everything I can to ensure that the information posted by me is entirely accurate, however, any information provided is subject to the possibility of error, both in fact and interpretation, on my part and for that I can not be held accountable.


Hi all,

Apologies for taking so long to post anything new. Life has been getting in the way somewhat, so I’ve not been able to do any further work on the blog recently. This is just a quick post this morning to let you know what I’m planning and provide a couple of summary points of news items on blogged companies since my last update.

News (well, not that new):
Plans for upcoming Posts / Investigations:
  • Enegi Oil (ENEG) NAV Assessment & What-if scenarios – Currently underway, hope to have this done soon.
  • Red Emperor Resources (RMP) NAV Assessment – This company is only floated on ASX at the moment, but appears to be quite under-the-radar. It’s partnered with RRL in Georgia and Puntland, and appears to have quite a low Market Cap. Apparently they plan to float on LSE in the near future.
  • Updates to RRL NAV after their recent acquisition, and perhaps after Texas flow rates established
  • Updates to Encore NAV after Cladhan Sidetrack completion.
  • NAV vs SP comparison for a variety of companies.
Generally AIM seems to have remained quite subdued, most likely due to general jitters and investors staying safe at the moment. Lots of examples of companies trading well below their NAV around at the moment. Price of oil remains high posing a risk to general global economic recovery, but at the same time offering higher value to these O&G company reserves, particularly those producing.  North Sea Oil tax seems to have had an impact on North Sea exploration & production companies, remains to be solved (come on Mr Osborne, what’s better, 20% of something or 32% of nothing?)….Fingers crossed that things start picking up sooner or later.
Hope to get ENEG and RMP out to you soon!